Namely, Capesize tej chaw yuav nce siab tshaj 25,000 USD ib hnub twg hauv Q4 yog tias hlau exporters raws li npaj cov hom phiaj xa khoom xa tuaj, nrog rau qhov kev rov qab mus rau hauv Panamax kev lag luam li shippers xav splitting ore cargoes, Maritime Strategies International hais nyob rau hauv nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia .
Txoj kev ua lag luam qhuav qhuav tseem muaj kev txaus siab rau lub caij ntuj sov uas muaj zog, nrog rau qhov nruab nrab cov nqi nce hauv lub Rau Hli rau tag nrho cov qauv tshwj tsis yog Handysize. Pib thaum Lub Xya Hli, Capesize cov chaw nruab nrab tau nce mus txog USD 25,000 / hnub. Tus cwj pwm zoo yog qhov tshwm sim hauv ib lub xyoo T / C cov nqi dhau, uas tau ceev cov nqi them rau tag nrho cov kev teev cov qauv, MSI tau hais.
Tuam Tshoj txoj kev noj kev haus rau hlau ore tau ua ib qho kev txhawb nqa rau lub khw muag khoom lag luam, nrog rau Australian xa tawm 13% siab tshaj xyoo-rau-lub xyoo June thiab Brazil nce 2% yo txawm poob ntawm kev xa tawm ntawm Minas Rio thiab Samarco mines. Txawm tias muaj dag zog los ua kom tsis muaj hlau ntau nyob rau hauv Suav teb, cov khoom ua tau zoo heev: Tej zaum cov zis tau yog 81.1m tonnes, nce li 12%.
"MSI tseem zoo rau qhov kev lag luam nyob rau hauv qhov kev muag khoom nyob rau xyoo ob ntawm xyoo no, nrog rau txoj cai kev nce qib los ntawm Australian thiab Brazilian hlau ore rau Tuam Tshoj, marginally offset los ntawm softer ze ze lub sij hawm cov lus thov thiab cov kev ntshaw uas soybeans luam yuav qis dua xyoo tas los, " Hais tias MSI Dry Siab Analyst William Hniav.
"Lub sab nraud ntawm sab nrauv yog zoo heev; MSI forecasts fleet kev loj hlob tag nrho nyob rau hauv 2018 yuav tsum 2.3% yoy. Muaj kev txwv tsis zoo rau txoj kev xav no yog khawb underperforms, Nyob rau hauv ib qho tsis tshua muaj huab scrapping scenario fleet loj hlob yuav nce mus txog 2.9%. "
Tuam Tshoj tus ntshuam thov rau hlau ore thiab cov tseem tshuav tus tsav tseem ceeb ntawm bulker freight nqi, yog li deb offsetting tej yam tsis zoo feem cuam tshuam rau brewing US-Suav teb ua tsov ua rog. Tab sis MSI faj seeb tias nws kev twv nqi ntawm Capesize cov chaw teev saum $ 25,000 / hnub hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis Ntuj yog ceev faj vim tias nws cov Case Case pom tau tias Vale yuav nco nws lub hom phiaj ntawm 390m tonnes lub xyoo no, lub hom phiaj uas nws reiterated nyob rau thaum Lub Xya Hli.
"Raws li Samarco, uas yuav tsis qhib qhov kev tsim tawm xyoo no thiab Minas Rio qhov project, uas tau raug kaw rau peb lub hlis, qhov kev cuam tshuam hlau luam yeeb los ntawm thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo no tau nthuav dav kawg hauv Brazil," ntxiv Hniav.
"Yog li ntawd, lub sijhawm rau lub hli dhau los rau Capesize cov nqi thauj khoom muaj peev xwm ua tsis tau zoo, txawm tias peb xav tias Vale yuav xa tsawg dua li ntawm Q3 thiab Q4. Tag nrho peb kwv yees Capesize chaw tus nqi ntawm tshaj $ 25 k / Hnub nyob rau hauv Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, tab sis Brazil tus xa khoom yog ib qhov chaw ntawm tseem ceeb upside raug rau no saib. "
